Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors picks, predictions: Who wins NBA playoffs first round series?

The No. 2 seed Houston Rockets and No. 7 seed Golden State Warriors play in the first round of the 2025 NBA playoffs starting Sunday, April 20.

Breaking their NBA play-in tournament curse, the Warriors used an extra game as a gift to get back into the playoffs, earning a trip to Houston to play the Rockets. These two teams have a long history in the playoffs, too. The coach is new, as is the roster, but the bad blood remains.

The Warriors are -190 at BetMGM to win the series despite being the No. 7 seed. The Warriors earned that spot by beating the Memphis Grizzlies 121-116 in Tuesday night’s play-in game. Golden State is just the second No. 7 seed to be favored over a No. 2 seed in the first round since 1988, and both high-seed underdogs have happened in the last five seasons. In 2021, the No. 7 Lakers were favored over the No. 2 seed Suns after winning the 2020 NBA title.

Houston enters as an underdog given the team’s relative inexperience in the playoffs. Guard Fred VanVleet is an NBA champion as he won the 2019 Finals with the Toronto Raptors. But this is Houston’s first playoff appearance since 2020 and the first time players like Alperen Şengün, Jalen Green and Amen Thompson have appeared in the playoffs.

Phoenix won that series in six games and went on to the NBA Finals before losing to the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Warriors won the season series 3-2, and their core has much more postseason experience. They’ll be leaning on that to take down the No. 2-seeded Rockets, starting Sunday night. Will that be enough?

Who will win the series and advance to the Western Conference semifinals?

Check out these NBA playoffs series picks and predictions for the first-round matchup.

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets predictions: NBA playoffs picks

NBA.com: Warriors will defeat Rockets in six games

John Schuhmann writes: "Any of the four teams on this side of the Western Conference bracket could realistically reach the conference finals, and two of them will be extremely disappointed when they lose in the first round. The Rockets are, objectively, the better team in this series, having ranked higher than the Warriors on both ends of the floor. But the Warriors have the core that’s been here before, and they’ve also been one of the league’s best road teams. The Rockets will make this a physical, ugly series; the two teams combined to score just a point per possession over their last four meetings. But in the end, Golden State should be just a little more potent offensively."

CBS Sports: Six of seven writers predict Warriors will beat Rockets

The site's writers like Golden State's chances to beat Houston overall in the first round of the 2025 NBA playoffs series.

Odds Shark: Warriors picked to advance past Rockets in six games

Chris Walder writes: "When the going gets tough and the Warriors need someone to take over a game, it's obvious that the ball will end up in the hands of either Curry or Butler when facing adversity. For the Rockets, they have a number of guys who could potentially be that type of player, but no one with a proven track record where it's a no-brainer call to make. This series could make someone in that regard like a Jalen Green or Alperen Sengun if Houston finds itself in a jam, but it's just a waiting game until we witness that before our eyes."

Athlon Sports: Warriors will beat Rockets in first round

Mark Medina writes: "The Rockets aren’t likely to be overwhelmed in the playoffs since they have both a key veteran (VanVleet) and head coach (Ime Udoka) that have been in the NBA Finals. But Houston collectively doesn’t have enough continuity to threaten a Warriors team that only needed Butler to rejoin the NBA title-contending conversation. Despite the Warriors’ late-season slide, they have developed a balanced offense featuring a blend of Curry’s 3s and Butler’s midrange shots. Meanwhile, Green and Jonathan Kuminga have increased their defensive presence."

The Oklahoman: Golden State will beat Houston in 4-2

Justin Martinez writes: Houston has made incredible strides. It went from missing the playoffs entirely last season to becoming the No. 2 seed in a stacked Western Conference, and its gritty defense led the way. But key players such as Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson have no postseason experience. Golden State has as much of that as anyone. It also has Jimmy Butler, who's 24-7 in games with the team. He won't be bothered by the Rockets' bruising defense, and he'll also serve as a second reliable closer alongside Stephen Curry. I'm going with Golden State in six.

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets: NBA Playoffs Odds

The Warriors are -200 to win the series in NBA playoffs odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook. The Rockets are +165.

The Warriors winning in six games is at +310 in odds for the outcome of the series. Golden State is at +450 to win in five games, +310 to win in six games and +475 to win in seven games.

The Rockets are +500 to beat the Warriors in seven games, +800 to win in six games, +875 to win in five games and +2500 to sweep Golden State.

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