Mercury vs. Aces Prediction: What time is Game 1 of WNBA Finals? How to watch
The 2025 WNBA Finals tip off Friday night with the Las Vegas Aces hosting the Phoenix Mercury at Michelob ULTRA Arena. It’s the first Finals in league history with a best-of-seven format, adding even more weight to Game 1.
Las Vegas, chasing its third championship in four years, opens as a 3.5-point favorite. Phoenix, back in the Finals for the first time since 2021, is hunting its first title since 2014.
Mercury vs. Aces Odds – Game 1
Spread: Mercury +3.5 (-118) | Aces -3.5 (-102)
Total: 160.5 (O -105 | U -115)
Moneyline: Mercury +130 | Aces -155
Why Phoenix Can Cover
The Mercury enter with a rest advantage, having wrapped up their semifinal series against Minnesota on Sunday. That gave them five full days to recover, while the Aces played a draining Game 5 in overtime just three days earlier against Indiana.
Phoenix has thrived in these situations: the Mercury went 8-3 this season with three or more days off, averaging 88 points per game. They also pushed Las Vegas in the regular season, with three of four matchups decided by three points or fewer.
Strength vs. Strength
This series sets up as an offensive juggernaut against a defensive wall. The Aces lead all playoff teams with a 108.9 offensive rating, while the Mercury boast the top defensive rating at 92.2. Unlike Seattle or Indiana, Phoenix has the personnel to force Las Vegas out of rhythm.
Expert Pick
Las Vegas has the home-court edge, but Phoenix’s fresher legs and elite defense make them dangerous in the opener. Taking the points with Mercury +3.5 is the play, with a lean toward the under on the total.
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