Mercury vs. Aces: Expert Picks for the 2025 WNBA Finals.

The 2025 WNBA Finals are here, and the matchup couldn’t be juicier: the powerhouse Las Vegas Aces against the scrappy, underdog Phoenix Mercury. Oddsmakers give Las Vegas the slight edge, but experts are split on who will raise the trophy.

Here’s a look at how analysts and sportsbooks are calling this series.

USA TODAY Sports: Aces in 7

Nancy Armour keeps it simple: “A’ja Wilson. Need I say more?” She calls Wilson the best player on the planet, crediting her ability to dominate in every facet of the game. Armour also highlights Jackie Young’s growth in confidence, making the Wilson-Young duo “too much to overcome.”

For The Win: Aces in 6

Meghan L. Hall sees Wilson as the headliner but warns not to overlook Las Vegas’ guards. Jackie Young is a “walking double-double,” Chelsea Gray has the ability to swing games if she gets hot, and the veteran bench of Jewell Loyd and Dana Evans could be the X-factor. If they chip in double-digit scoring, Hall thinks the Aces will roll to a third championship.

USA TODAY Sports: Mercury in 6

Cydney Henderson goes the other way, leaning into Phoenix’s underdog identity. The Mercury knocked out the Liberty and Lynx against all odds, powered by their physical defense and their “Big 3” of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and Kahleah Copper. Henderson frames the Finals as a battle of trios — and believes Phoenix’s group can outlast Vegas.

Bet365: Value on Mercury to Win

The sportsbook points to Phoenix’s offensive balance: Copper as a go-to scorer, Sabally as a floor-stretcher, and Thomas as one of the best passers in the league. Defensively, the Mercury limit second-chance points, neutralizing one of Vegas’ biggest weapons. With momentum and health on their side, Bet365 argues the +110 odds on Phoenix are the smartest bet.

FanDuel: Aces in 7

Annie Nader emphasizes home-court splits. Both teams have been elite at home this postseason (combined 7–2), but Phoenix’s road struggles (-2.0 net rating compared to +8.6 at home) could be costly. With Vegas having the slight edge in Game 7 at home, Nader bets the Finals “go the distance.”

CBS Sports: Aces in 7

Jack Maloney admits it’s tough to trust Las Vegas after they nearly fell to a shorthanded Indiana Fever squad, but he circles back to three deciding factors: Wilson’s dominance, home-court advantage, and the Aces’ late-game composure. He expects a razor-thin series, but one the Aces will ultimately survive.

The Verdict

Experts are leaning slightly toward the Aces, with most predicting a six- or seven-game grind. Phoenix has believers, though, especially those swayed by their defense and the balanced attack of Copper, Sabally, and Thomas.

This Finals is shaping up as a clash of trios: Wilson–Young–Gray vs. Thomas–Sabally–Copper. Whoever owns those matchups likely owns the trophy.

Consensus tilt: Las Vegas Aces, in 7 games.