Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: Who Wins the 2025 WNBA Finals.
The stage is set. The No. 2 seed Las Vegas Aces and the No. 4 seed Phoenix Mercury are squaring off in the 2025 WNBA Finals, and if the odds are right, we’re in for a long, bruising, dramatic series.
Las Vegas is a slim favorite at –130 to win it all, while Phoenix sits at +110. Translation? Bookmakers expect fireworks and a near-even fight.
Why the Aces Have the Edge?
Let’s start with the obvious: A’ja Wilson is the best player on the planet right now. She doesn’t just score; she dictates pace, clogs lanes, and intimidates in ways box scores don’t always capture. Add in Jackie Young’s steady two-way presence and Chelsea Gray’s big-game experience, and you’ve got a trio that has already proven it can win championships.
The Aces also own home court advantage, which in a Finals this tight might be the difference between champagne and heartbreak. They’re comfortable in pressure moments, and their bench—especially Jewell Loyd and Dana Evans—gives them scoring options the Mercury may struggle to match.
Why the Mercury Can Shock the World?
Don’t underestimate Phoenix. This team has thrived on the underdog role all year. No one picked them to beat the defending champion New York Liberty or the surging Minnesota Lynx, but here they are.
Their “Big 3” of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and Kahleah Copper can attack from multiple angles. Copper is lethal on the wing, Sabally stretches defenses with her versatility, and Thomas is the engine—one of the smartest passers in the league who sets the tone physically.
Defensively, the Mercury are tough. They limit second-chance opportunities and force teams into bad possessions. If they can bring that same intensity into this series, they’ll make life miserable for Wilson and company.
The challenge? Winning on the road. Phoenix has been a different team away from home, and to take this series they’ll need to steal at least one in Vegas. That’s a tall order.
Odds For Aces vs Mercury WNBA Final
Aces –130
Mercury +110
Series length odds are telling: oddsmakers see this going six or seven games. Sweeps and five-game series sit at longshot prices. That means Vegas has the edge, but Phoenix is more than capable of dragging this thing into the deep waters of Game 7.
Pick for Aces vs Mercury WNBA Final
Everything points to a heavyweight fight. Both squads are elite at home, both have superstar trios, and both are fueled by different kinds of pressure—Vegas chasing dynasty status, Phoenix trying to complete a stunning underdog run.
When it’s this close, lean on the team with the best player and the home court advantage. That’s Las Vegas.
Prediction For Aces vs Mercury WNBA Final in 7 games.
Wilson shines, Jackie Young takes another leap, and the Aces cement themselves as one of the league’s great dynasties. But don’t expect Phoenix to roll over—they’ll make Vegas earn every second of it.
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