New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds: Odds, Picks & Predictions

The New York Mets (75-65) face the Cincinnati Reds (70-70) on Friday to begin a three-game series at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. 5 sep Here’s a breakdown of the matchup, including MLB odds, expert picks, and predictions.

Season Series Overview

The Reds currently lead the season series 2-1.

Mets: Snapped a two-game win streak on Wednesday with a 6-2 loss as a -108 underdog at the Detroit Tigers. Pete Alonso (3-for-4) and Mark Vientos (1-for-4) each drove in a run. New York took 2 of 3 in Detroit, outscoring the Tigers 10-8 and 12-5 in the first two games. The finale went Under 9.5 with only 2 Mets runs.
Reds: Lost back-to-back home games to the Toronto Blue Jays, including a 13-9 defeat as a +134 underdog. Noelvi Marte had 3 RBIs Wednesday and finished the three-game set 5-for-15 (.333) with 5 RBIs. Cincinnati has dropped 10 of its last 13 games, trailing the NL Wild Card-leading Mets by five games.

Projected Starters

Left-Hander David Peterson (Mets) vs. Left-Hander Andrew Abbott (Reds)

David Peterson (8-5, 3.61 ERA)

WHIP: 1.31 | BB/9: 3.4 | K/9: 8.1 | 152 IP
Last Start: No-decision, 2 IP, 8 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 1 K vs. Miami
2025 vs. Reds: 1 home start, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K

Andrew Abbott (8-5, 2.65 ERA)

WHIP: 1.12 | BB/9: 2.5 | K/9: 8.1 | 139 IP
Last Start: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 7 K vs. St. Louis
2025 vs. Mets: 1 road start, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K

Mets at Reds Odds (BetMGM Sportsbook)

Moneyline (ML): Mets -135 | Reds +110
Run Line (RL/ATS): Mets -1.5 (+125) | Reds +1.5 (-155)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Picks & Predictions

Prediction: Reds 6, Mets 5

Moneyline: BET REDS (+110)

Cincinnati’s recent struggles are more on pitching than offense, having scored at least 5 runs in 5 of the last 6 games. Abbott has been solid, pitching 6+ innings in 3 of his last 5 starts. With the Wild Card race tightening, the Reds are motivated to win.
Mets starter Peterson has allowed 6+ earned runs in 2 of his last 4 starts, and New York has lost 3 of 5 overall.

Run Line/ATS: PASS

The moneyline provides better value for the Reds than the spread.

Over/Under: BET OVER 9 (-110)

Both teams have been scoring heavily:
- Reds: 30 runs in last 4 games, scoring at least 5 in 5 of 6, while allowing 25 in last 2.
- Mets: 10+ runs in 2 of last 3, 8+ runs in 4 of last 6, allowing 5+ in 8 of 9.