Who Will Win NBA MVP 2026? Top 10 Contenders Right Now
The 2025-26 NBA MVP race is heating up as we approach the All-Star break in mid-February 2026. With the season roughly at the halfway mark (teams around 45-50 games played based on recent reports), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) of the Oklahoma City Thunder remains the clear frontrunner, but challengers like Luka Doncic (now with the Los Angeles Lakers) and surging Cade Cunningham (Detroit Pistons) are closing the gap.
This power rankings breakdown draws from the latest BetMGM odds (as of late January 2026, per sources like USA TODAY and BetMGM's own tracker), team performance, individual stats, and narrative momentum. SGA's Thunder hold the league's best (or near-best) record, while injuries (e.g., Nikola Jokic sidelined since late December, Jimmy Butler's season-ending ACL tear with the Golden State Warriors) have reshaped the landscape.
Current 2026 NBA MVP Odds (BetMGM, late Jan 2026)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC Thunder): -450 (heavy favorite, ~82% implied probability)
Luka Doncic (LAL Lakers): +900
Cade Cunningham (DET Pistons): +1000
Jaylen Brown (BOS Celtics): +2200
Anthony Edwards (MIN Timberwolves): +6000
Tyrese Maxey (PHI 76ers): +8000
Jalen Brunson (NY Knicks): +10000
Donovan Mitchell (CLE Cavaliers): +50000
Stephen Curry (GS Warriors): +50000
Kevin Durant (HOU Rockets): +100000
(Note: Odds can shift quickly; Jokic is off the board or very long due to injury.)
Power Rankings: Top Contenders
1 - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC Thunder) – Odds: -450
This is SGA's award to lose right now. The Thunder boast one of the league's top records (around 38-10 in some snapshots), elite defense, and consistent wins. SGA leads in efficiency and impact, though he doesn't top any single stat category (Doncic edges him in PPG). Team success and narrative (reigning MVP repeating) keep him locked in. If OKC slips, odds could tighten.
2 - Luka Doncic (Los Angeles Lakers) – Odds: +900
Doncic is putting up monster numbers (league-leading scoring around 33+ PPG, high assists/rebounds) in his new Lakers home alongside LeBron James. His true shooting remains elite despite volume, and he's carrying the offense. Defense is a knock, but raw production and team context make him the clear No. 2. A hot streak or Lakers surge could close the gap fast.
3 - Cade Cunningham (Detroit Pistons) – Odds: +1000
The biggest riser. Detroit is red-hot (around 34-11, just behind or nipping at OKC for best record in some views), with Cunningham leading the league in assists and driving their turnaround. His all-around game and team momentum make him a legit threat—especially if Pistons overtake for the East's top spot.
4 - Jaylen Brown (Boston Celtics) – Odds: +2200
Dark horse alert. Boston remains elite (strong net rating) despite roster changes and Jayson Tatum's absence. Brown has overperformed massively, carrying the load. Narrative hurts him (focus on Tatum's return), but value-wise, he's underrated. A massive drop-off after him in odds shows how tiered this race is.
5 - Anthony Edwards (Minnesota Timberwolves) – Odds: +6000
Edwards leads this underdog tier in PPG, rebounds, and clutch play (improved 3PT shooting, elite defense). Minnesota isn't a top contender, but his individual dominance and efficiency make a case. Edges out Maxey slightly due to better team record and stats.
6 - Tyrese Maxey (Philadelphia 76ers) – Odds: +8000
Keeping Philly afloat with Joel Embiid limited (~25 games). High scoring and playmaking, but Edwards' superior numbers and team standing give him the nod here.
7 - Jalen Brunson (New York Knicks) – Odds: +10000
Solid all-around leader for Knicks, but odds reflect lower ceiling compared to the top group.
Long Shots Worth Watching
Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors) – +50000
With Jimmy Butler's season-ending ACL tear shifting more load to Curry, he could elevate if Warriors climb to a 4-5 seed in the West (they're close). Stats aren't MVP-level yet, but narrative (potential third MVP) and importance make it intriguing.
Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers) – +50000
Not even an All-Star starter? Odds feel too long given his talent, but Cavs' performance hasn't elevated him.
This race could flip with injuries, trades (deadline Feb 5-6, 2026), or hot streaks. SGA's team dominance gives him the edge, but Doncic's scoring and Cunningham's rise keep it competitive. All-Star voting and performances in February will shake things up!
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