Liberty Bowl 2026: Navy vs Cincinnati Early Odds, Prediction, Best Bets.

The 2026 AutoZone Liberty Bowl features the No. 22 Navy Midshipmen (9-2, 7-1 AAC) against the Cincinnati Bearcats (7-5, 5-4 Big 12). Navy, riding a dominant rushing attack (second nationally at 285.3 yards per game), clinched a share of the AAC title with a 28-17 win over Memphis at the bowl site. Cincinnati, seeking bowl redemption after a midseason slump (four losses in five games), brings Big 12 experience but struggled defensively (allowed 32 ppg). This is the seventh all-time meeting (Navy leads 4-2), with the last in 2019 (Cincinnati won 31-24).

Picks Prediction Odds for AutoZone Liberty Bowl 2026Current Lines (as of Dec 10, 2025)

BetMGM: Navy -2.5 (-110) | Cincinnati +2.5 (-110) | O/U 46 (-110) | Moneyline: Navy -135 / Cincinnati +115

FanDuel: Navy -2 (-108) | Cincinnati +2 (-112) | O/U 45.5 (-110) | Moneyline: Navy -130 / Cincinnati +110

DraftKings: Navy -2.5 (-110) | Cincinnati +2.5 (-110) | O/U 46 (-105) | Moneyline: Navy -138 / Cincinnati +118

Caesars: Navy -2 (-110) | Cincinnati +2 (-110) | O/U 46 (-110) | Moneyline: Navy -132 / Cincinnati +112

ESPN BET: Navy -2.5 (-110) | Cincinnati +2.5 (-110) | O/U 45.5 (-110) | Moneyline: Navy -135 / Cincinnati +115

Expert Picks & Predictions

Consensus favors Navy to cover in a moderate-scoring affair (projected 27-23), with 65% of experts on the Midshipmen due to their rushing edge (285 ypg vs. Cincinnati's No. 78 rush D) and bowl motivation. Cincinnati's passing game (No. 35 efficiency) tests Navy's secondary, but Mids' 8-1 SU as favorites seals it. Win probability: Navy 62%, Cincinnati 38%.

USA Today Sportsbook Wire

Pick: Navy -2.5 | Predicted score: Navy 28–24 Cincinnati

Reasoning: Navy's 8-3 ATS and No. 2 rushing overwhelm Cincinnati's 6-6 ATS (2-4 vs. ranked); nine of Navy's 11 games hit over, but Bearcats' D (No. 45 scoring) caps it. Best bet: Navy ML (-135) for value; over 46 if tempo rises.

CBS Sports Model (10,000+ Sims)

Pick: Navy -2.5 | Projected: Navy 26–21 Cincinnati

Model has Mids covering in 60% of sims, citing Navy's top-10 success rate rush vs. Cincinnati's bottom-50 run stops. Under in 55% of runs due to both defenses (Navy No. 22 scoring D). Prop: Blake Horvath over 100.5 rush yds (-110).

ESPN FPI & Analytics

Win Probability: Navy 62% | Projected: Navy 27–23 Cincinnati

FPI edges Mids' efficiency (No. 15 overall) over Cincinnati's volume (No. 55); Bearcats cover if QB Brendan Sorsby exploits secondary (allowed 220+ pass yds in 4 losses). Over in 52% sims with combined explosives.

Knup Sports

Pick: Navy -2.5 | Predicted: Navy 30–25 Cincinnati

Highlights Navy's 6-0 home (including at Memphis site) and rushing (second nationally) vs. Cincinnati's late slump (1-4 in final five). Contrarian: Cincinnati +2.5 if they force turnovers (Navy 12 lost). Best bet: Over 46 (-110).

Action Network (Collin Wilson)

Pick: Over 46 | Projected: Navy 28–26 Cincinnati

Wilson sees value in total with Navy's ground forcing mismatches and Cincinnati's pass (No. 35 EPA); over hits in 65% of combined games. Sharp money (58% handle) on Navy -2.5; prop: Alex Tecza over 80.5 rush yds (+105).