2025 College football picks, predictions against the spread for every conference championship game

Six of the nine conference championship games are rematches from the regular season.

So, how many teams will get a chance for revenge this weekend? Conference championship week kicks off with five matchups that will determine playoff spots—or at least seeding. On Friday, the American Conference title game features No. 21 North Texas against No. 22 Tulane at 8 p.m. ET on ABC. The winner earns a spot in the postseason.

McCaffrey talks about the significance of his role following the win over the Browns.

Power 4 Conference Championships games on Saturday

All four major conference championships happen Saturday. No. 11 BYU faces No. 5 Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game at 12 p.m. ET on ABC. BYU could create a surprise and secure a second playoff spot for the Big 12, while Texas Tech could earn a first-round bye with a win.

No. 10 Alabama meets No. 3 Georgia in the SEC championship at 4 p.m. ET on ABC. Could a three-loss Crimson Tide team be left out of the College Football Playoff? It's unlikely, but the discussion is open.

Duke takes on No. 16 Virginia in the ACC championship at 8 p.m. ET on ABC. The Blue Devils, with five losses, could still capture the conference title—a twist that adds more drama to the ACC’s chaotic race.

Meanwhile, No. 2 Indiana faces No. 1 Ohio State at 8 p.m. ET on Fox in what many are calling a “Game of the Century.” The winner remains the only undefeated FBS team and earns the top seed in the College Football Playoff, starting their run at the Rose Bowl.

AP Top 25 Picks Against the Spread

Heading into championship week, here’s our record for AP Top 25 games (odds via Caesars):

Straight up: 188-54 (18-2 in Week 14)
Against the spread: 113-123-6 (8-12 in Week 14)

2025 College football championship week picks against the spread, predictions

Friday, Dec. 5

Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State (-1.5) – 7 p.m., CBSSN – Jacksonville, Ala.
Jacksonville State captured the regular-season matchup 35-26 but committed four turnovers while giving up 252 yards. Kennesaw State racked up 579 yards in that loss, making this line nearly even. Can the Gamecocks defend their Conference USA title, or will Kennesaw State pull off an upset?
Pick: Kennesaw State wins 31-28 – upset.

Troy at No. 19 James Madison (-22.5) – 7 p.m., ESPN – Harrisburg, Va.
James Madison has outscored opponents 141-40 over the past three weeks. With QB Alonza Barrett III and RB Wayne Knight playing at a high level, the Dukes look tough. Troy’s Will Crowder has 7 TDs and one interception over his last two games.
Pick: James Madison wins 41-20 but fails to cover the spread.

No. 21 North Texas (-2.5) vs. No. 22 Tulane – 8 p.m., ABC – New Orleans
Both coaches are leaving for new programs, adding intrigue. North Texas QB Drew Mestemaker has 16 TDs and just one interception in his last six games, scoring 50+ points in five of them. Tulane is unbeaten at home this season.
Pick: North Texas wins 38-31 and covers the spread.

UNLV at Boise State (-3.5) – 8 p.m., ABC – Boise, Idaho
Boise State dominated the first meeting 56-31, racking up over 1,000 total yards combined. UNLV’s Anthony Colandrea is a strong QB, but Dan Mullen’s Broncos have won the last 10 meetings.
Pick: Boise State wins 31-24 and covers the spread.

Saturday, Dec. 6

No. 11 BYU vs. No. 5 Texas Tech (-13.5) – 12 p.m., ABC – Arlington, Texas
Texas Tech won the first matchup 29-7, holding BYU to 67 rushing yards. The Red Raiders’ front seven, led by Jacob Rodriguez, dominated that game. BYU QB Bear Bachmeier and RB LJ Martin will need standout performances to challenge Texas Tech’s defense.
Pick: Texas Tech wins 31-19 but fails to cover the spread.

Miami vs. Western Michigan (-2.5) – 12 p.m., ESPN – Detroit
Miami won the regular-season matchup 26-17 with former QB DeQuan Finn. Now Thomas Gotkowski leads Western Michigan, averaging 205.5 passing yards with 4 TDs and no interceptions. The Broncos’ QB Broc Lowry can make key plays in this rematch.
Pick: Western Michigan wins 26-21 and covers the spread.

No. 10 Alabama vs. No. 3 Georgia (-2.5) – 4 p.m., ABC – Atlanta
Alabama defeated Georgia 24-21 in the first matchup. Ty Simpson threw for 276 yards and 2 TDs; Gunner Stockton rushed for 130 yards and a TD. Georgia won the ground game but lost. Expect turnovers and penalties to play a role again.
Pick: Georgia wins 27-20 and covers the spread.

No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State (-5.5) – 8 p.m., Fox – Indianapolis
Indiana makes its first Big Ten championship appearance. Ohio State allows just 3.7 yards per play on defense and dominated Indiana 38-15 last season. Can the Hoosiers keep up with QB Julian Sayin and prevent big plays from Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith?
Pick: Ohio State wins 28-17 and covers the spread.

Duke vs. No. 16 Virginia (-3) – 8 p.m., ABC – Charlotte
Duke, with five losses, could complicate CFP seeding, while Virginia seeks its first ACC title in this matchup. Transfer QBs Darian Mensah and Chandler Morris have both performed well. Virginia RB J’Mari Taylor has averaged 104 rushing yards over the past four weeks.
Pick: Virginia wins 31-23 and covers the spread.

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