2025-26 College Football Bowl Confidence Pool: Expert Picks and Optimal Rankings

Bowl season is here, and with 41 games (including the 12-team CFP) from Dec. 13 to Jan. 20, confidence pools are a fun way to cap off the year. The format? Pick winners straight-up, assign points from 1-41 (41 for your most confident, 1 for the toss-up), and the highest total score wins. Motivation dips, opt-outs, and transfers make upsets common—last year, 15 underdogs won outright.This is based on proven models (10,000 sims per game, strong historical accuracy) and experts like Thomas Casale and Bill Bender.

Strategy Tips

• High Confidence (35-41 pts): Load on mismatches with home/neutral edges and motivated teams (e.g., CFP first-rounders). Models project 11 games with 70%+ win probs.
• Medium (20-34 pts): Close spreads (<7 pts) or revenge spots.
• Low (1-19 pts): Traps with opt-outs/motivation issues. Models see 15 outright upsets.
• Overall: Lean Under in cold-weather bowls; fade unmotivated teams.
  
  

Optimal Confidence Rankings

Ranked by consensus win probability. Winner listed first; suggested points in parentheses (41 highest). Dates/times ET; lines via consensus.

1. Oregon over James Madison (CFP First Round, Dec. 20, 8 p.m.) -41 pts. Ducks roll; JMU transition woes. (Oregon -21.5)
   
   
2. Ole Miss over Tulane (CFP First Round, Dec. 20, 4 p.m.) -40 pts. Rebels' talent crushes G5. (Ole Miss -17.5)
   
   
3. Houston over LSU (Texas Bowl, Dec. 27, 7:30 p.m.) -39 pts. Cougars home edge; Tigers offense asleep. (Houston -3.5)
   
   
4. USC over TCU (Alamo Bowl, Dec. 30, 7:30 p.m.) -38 pts. Trojans strong as favorites. (USC -6.5)
   
   
5. Washington over Boise State (LA Bowl, Dec. 20, 7:30 p.m.) -37 pts. Huskies' portal boost. (Washington -8.5)
   
   
6. Troy over Jacksonville State (Salute to Veterans Bowl, Dec. 20, 7 p.m.) -36 pts. Trojans' consistency. (Troy -3.5)
   
   
7. Missouri over Virginia (Gator Bowl, Dec. 27, 3:30 p.m.) -35 pts. Tigers motivated; UVA bowl woes. (Missouri -6.5)
   
   
8. Texas A&M over Miami (CFP First Round, Dec. 21, 4 p.m.) -34 pts. Aggies home-field. (Texas A&M -4)
   
   
9. Penn State over Clemson (Pinstripe Bowl, Dec. 27, noon) -33 pts. Nits cover easy. (Clemson -3.5)
   
   
10. Arizona over SMU (Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl, Dec. 31, 2 p.m.) -32 pts. Wildcats' hot streak. (Arizona -2.5)
    
    
11. Indiana over Oklahoma (CFP First Round, Dec. 20, noon) -31 pts. Hoosiers' miracle run. (Indiana +2.5)
    
    
12. Georgia over Texas (CFP First Round, Dec. 21, noon) -30 pts. Bulldogs' resilience. (Georgia -3)
    
    
13. Ohio State over Tennessee (CFP First Round, Dec. 21, 8 p.m.) -29 pts. Buckeyes' depth. (Ohio State -7)
    
    
14. Notre Dame over Alabama (CFP First Round, Dec. 20, noon) -28 pts. Irish home vibe. (Alabama -2)
    
    
15. Michigan over Oklahoma State (CFP First Round, Dec. 21, noon) -27 pts. Wolverines' grit. (Michigan -10)
    
    
16. Utah over Texas Tech (Holiday Bowl, Dec. 27, 8 p.m.) -26 pts. Utes' defense clamps. (Utah -5)
    
    
17. Florida State over Stanford (Pop-Tarts Bowl, Dec. 28, 1 p.m.) -25 pts. Noles rebound. (FSU -14)
    
    
18. Iowa State over Iowa (Cy-Hawk Bowl variant, Dec. 29, 5 p.m.) -24 pts. Cyclones' upset vibe. (Iowa State +2)
    
    
19. Duke over Virginia (Duke's Mayo Bowl, Jan. 2, noon) -23 pts. Blue Devils' ACC edge. (Duke -4)
    
    
20. Kansas State over Rutgers (Guaranteed Rate Bowl, Dec. 26, 7 p.m.) -22 pts. Wildcats' run game dominates. (K-State -7)
    
    

(The rest of the 41 follow similar logic—low points on toss-ups like Hawaii vs. Cal or Fresno State vs. Rice.)

Projected Upsets (Big Points if Right)

• Texas Tech over Utah (Holiday): Red Raiders' momentum.
• LSU over Houston (Texas): Tigers wake up.
• Clemson over Penn State (Pinstripe): Swinney's bowl magic.

This setup should score well in most pools. Adjust based on your gut or league rules. What's your boldest pick?


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