NBA record projections for every team, playoff picks: How we look 2025-26 season unfolding.
The start of the NBA season is just five days away.
Friday, Oct. 17 marks the end of the preseason, and teams across the league are fine-tuning rotations, building chemistry, and chasing one goal — a trip to the NBA Finals.
The reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder enter as the team to beat after a dominant 2024-25 campaign. Their 68 wins led the league — 16 more than the next-best Western team, the Houston Rockets (52), and four ahead of the Eastern leader, the Cleveland Cavaliers (64).
Still, no team has repeated as NBA champion since the Golden State Warriors in 2017 and 2018. The path to a repeat is steep, and the competition is deep.
Here’s how the 2025-26 season could unfold, with projected records and playoff picks for every team.
Eastern Conference record projections
Atlantic Division
(1) New York Knicks; 59-23
New head coach Mike Brown is expected to make full use of the Knicks’ depth, something his predecessor struggled to do. The biggest shift should be an offense less reliant on Jalen Brunson dominating the ball. More off-ball movement and better shot variety could push New York into true contender status.
(6) Philadelphia 76ers; 43-39
Everything depends on Joel Embiid’s health. He reported to camp lighter and fitter, but his limited preseason suggests a strict load management plan. If he stays healthy, Philadelphia could easily exceed this projection.
(7) Boston Celtics; 41-41
The Celtics are one of the toughest teams to project. With Jayson Tatum out for much of the regular season and Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday traded away, role players like Sam Hauser and Neemias Queta will be tested.
(9) Toronto Raptors; 40-42
Adding Brandon Ingram should jumpstart the offense and pair nicely with Scottie Barnes. If both stay healthy, Toronto could fight for a play-in spot after missing it last season.
Brooklyn Nets; 16-66
The Nets are clearly rebuilding. Young, unproven players like Cam Thomas and Michael Porter Jr. will shoulder heavy offensive loads, and the growing pains will be evident.
Central Division
(2) Cleveland Cavaliers; 58-24
After leading the East with 64 wins last season, Cleveland remains a powerhouse. Losing sixth man Ty Jerome stings, but the core is intact, and depth additions like Lonzo Ball and Larry Nance Jr. should help.
(3) Detroit Pistons; 53-29
Last year’s breakout continues. The return of Jaden Ivey from injury will free up Cade Cunningham, who had a monster season as the lead playmaker. If both continue progressing, Detroit could challenge the East’s elite.
(10) Indiana Pacers; 39-43
Without their star point guard, Indiana will rely on ball-sharing and whoever has the hot hand. Bennedict Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard will have chances to shine, but Isaiah Jackson must fill Myles Turner’s void.
Milwaukee Bucks; 37-45
Giannis Antetokounmpo remains a force, but scoring help is scarce. Adding Myles Turner was key, yet offensive balance remains a major question.
Chicago Bulls; 35-47
Three straight Play-In appearances haven’t sparked change. The Bulls mostly stood pat, but if Josh Giddey continues his rise, they could surprise.
Southeast Division
(4) Orlando Magic; 52-30
Last year’s injuries derailed a promising season. Healthy versions of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, plus new addition Desmond Bane, give Orlando one of the most balanced rosters in the East.
(5) Atlanta Hawks; 44-38
A revitalized roster featuring Kristaps Porziņģis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Luke Kennard adds depth, while Jalen Johnson’s return and No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher bring excitement.
(8) Miami Heat; 40-42
Without Tyler Herro early on, Miami’s offense will again face pressure. Veteran Norman Powell adds stability, and early camp reports suggest a faster pace — a much-needed spark.
Washington Wizards; 23-59
The Wizards are still rebuilding but have intriguing young talent in Alex Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly, and Bub Carrington. Rookie Tre Johnson could be their long-term star.
Charlotte Hornets; 21-61
Shooting upgrades will help, but success hinges on LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller becoming more efficient.
Western Conference record projections
Northwest Division
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder; 62-20
The defending champs remain loaded, even with Jalen Williams recovering from wrist surgery. Depth and chemistry are their superpowers — but avoiding complacency will be key.
(3) Denver Nuggets; 54-28
Adding Cameron Johnson gives Nikola Jokić another creative weapon. Two years after their title, Denver is still built to win big.
(6) Minnesota Timberwolves; 45-37
After back-to-back trips to the conference finals, Minnesota faces a ceiling question — especially after losing Nickeil Alexander-Walker, a key defensive piece.
Portland Trail Blazers; 37-45
Jrue Holiday brings leadership and defense, and Shaedon Sharpe could be ready for a leap. But Scoot Henderson’s health remains a concern.
Utah Jazz; 17-65
Rookie Ace Bailey has flashed star potential, but with Lauri Markkanen possibly on the trade block, Utah is in full rebuild mode.
Pacific Division
(4) Los Angeles Clippers; 51-31
The Kawhi Leonard and Steve Ballmer salary-cap investigation looms, but this might be the last real title window for this veteran squad. Additions John Collins and Brook Lopez strengthen the frontcourt.
(7) Golden State Warriors; 45-37
Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler can still win games on willpower, but depth and size are glaring issues. Age could catch up fast.
(8) Los Angeles Lakers; 43-39
With LeBron James sidelined early, Luka Dončić will carry the load. The Lakers need DeAndre Ayton to solidify the center spot and James healthy for any serious run.
Sacramento Kings; 35-47
Dennis Schröder gives Sacramento stability at point guard, but perimeter defense remains their Achilles heel after ranking last in opponent 3-point percentage.
Phoenix Suns; 30-52
It’s now Devin Booker’s team. Pairing him with Jalen Green creates an explosive backcourt, and Dillon Brooks adds defense — but offense might still lag.
Southwest Division
(2) Houston Rockets; 55-27
Losing Fred VanVleet to an ACL tear hurts, but Kevin Durant leads a deep, athletic roster capable of challenging anyone — including the defending champs.
(5) San Antonio Spurs; 50-32
Rookie Dylan Harper has impressed early, and Victor Wembanyama looks stronger and sharper. With De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle, San Antonio could be this season’s breakout power.
(9) Memphis Grizzlies; 39-43
Rookies Cedric Coward and Ty Jerome will need to step up as Ja Morant battles a minor ankle sprain. Turnovers remain the team’s biggest obstacle.
(10) Dallas Mavericks; 38-44
No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg adds versatility and playmaking, but without Kyrie Irving, it’ll be a struggle. Anthony Davis’s health will determine their ceiling.
New Orleans Pelicans; 28-54
A leaner Zion Williamson offers hope, but with Dejounte Murray out, it’s an uphill climb. Rookies Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen are intriguing, but this team is in transition.
2025-26 NBA playoff predictions
Eastern Conference
First round
(1) Knicks def. (8) Heat
(7) Celtics def. (2) Cavaliers
(3) Pistons def. (6) 76ers
(5) Hawks def. (4) Magic
Conference semifinals
(1) Knicks def. (5) Hawks
(3) Pistons def. (7) Celtics
Conference finals
(1) Knicks def. (3) Pistons
Western Conference
First round
(1) Thunder def. (8) Lakers
(2) Rockets def. (7) Warriors
(3) Nuggets def. (6) Timberwolves
(5) Spurs def. (4) Clippers
Conference semifinals
(5) Spurs def. (1) Thunder
(3) Nuggets def. (2) Rockets
Conference finals
(3) Nuggets def. (5) Spurs
2026 NBA Finals
Nuggets def. Knicks
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