UFC 329 Predictions: McGregor vs Holloway 2 – Full Fight Card, Win Probabilities & Expert Analysis
UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 promises to be one of the biggest MMA events of 2026. The highly anticipated rematch sees Conor McGregor return to the Octagon against former featherweight champion Max Holloway in a blockbuster welterweight main event.
Beyond the headline fight, UFC 329 features an action-packed card with ranked contenders, rising prospects, and several potential Fight of the Night candidates. Below are our data-driven UFC 329 predictions, combining point-in-time Elo ratings, fighter records, recent form, and matchup-specific analytics to estimate each fighter's probability of victory before fight night.
UFC 329 Event Details
- Event: UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2
- Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Broadcast: Paramount+
UFC 329 Start Time Around the World
| Region | Start Time |
|---|---|
| US Eastern (ET) | 9:00 PM |
| US Pacific (PT) | 6:00 PM |
| United Kingdom | 2:00 AM (Sunday) |
| Central Europe | 3:00 AM (Sunday) |
| Sydney, Australia | 11:00 AM (Sunday) |
UFC 329 Main Card Predictions
Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway 2 (Welterweight Main Event)
Prediction: Max Holloway (64%)
Conor McGregor (36%)
Elo Rating Only
- Holloway: 54%
- McGregor: 46%
The UFC 329 main event marks a long-awaited rematch between two fan favorites. While McGregor remains one of the sport's most dangerous knockout artists, the model favors Holloway due to his elite striking volume, durability, cardio, and recent competitive performances. McGregor's power makes him a legitimate threat throughout the fight, but Holloway enters as the statistical favorite.
Benoit Saint-Denis vs Paddy Pimblett (Lightweight)
Prediction: Benoit Saint-Denis (54%)
Paddy Pimblett (46%)
Elo Rating Only
- Saint-Denis: 51%
- Pimblett: 49%
One of the closest fights on the card. Saint-Denis' relentless pressure and finishing ability give him a slight edge, while Pimblett's creativity and grappling keep this matchup extremely competitive.
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista (Bantamweight)
Prediction: Mario Bautista (64%)
Cory Sandhagen (36%)
Elo Rating Only
- Bautista: 51%
- Sandhagen: 49%
Although Sandhagen owns the experience advantage, the prediction model favors Bautista's well-rounded skill set, offensive pace, and recent momentum.
Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight)
Prediction: Lone'er Kavanagh (64%)
Brandon Royval (36%)
Elo Rating Only
- Royval: 51%
- Kavanagh: 49%
An intriguing flyweight matchup featuring veteran experience against rising talent. Kavanagh receives the edge thanks to his balanced offensive game and projected long-term upside.
King Green vs Terrance McKinney (Lightweight)
Prediction: Terrance McKinney (52%)
King Green (48%)
Elo Rating Only
- Green: 55%
- McKinney: 45%
Expect fireworks in this lightweight showdown. McKinney's explosive finishing ability narrowly outweighs Green's experience, making this one of the card's closest contests.
UFC 329 Preliminary Card Predictions
Robert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov
Prediction: Nikita Krylov (63%)
Robert Whittaker (37%)
Elo Rating Only
- Whittaker: 55%
- Krylov: 45%
Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison
Prediction: Gable Steveson (64%)
Elisha Ellison (36%)
Elo Rating Only
- Steveson: 52%
- Ellison: 48%
Olympic gold medalist Gable Steveson continues his transition into MMA with another favorable statistical matchup.
Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez
Prediction: Adrian Yanez (62%)
Cody Garbrandt (38%)
Elo Rating Only
- 50% / 50%
Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III
Prediction: Luke Riley (73%)
Kai Kamaka III (27%)
Elo Rating Only
- Riley: 60%
- Kamaka: 40%
Riley owns one of the highest projected win probabilities on the entire UFC 329 card.
UFC 329 Early Preliminary Card Predictions
Tracy Cortez vs Cong Wang
Prediction: Cong Wang (62%)
Tracy Cortez (38%)
Elo Rating Only
- Wang: 51%
- Cortez: 49%
Damian Pinas vs César Almeida
Prediction: Damian Pinas (70%)
César Almeida (30%)
Elo Rating Only
- Pinas: 54%
- Almeida: 46%
Farid Basharat vs Ethyn Ewing
Prediction: Farid Basharat (72%)
Ethyn Ewing (28%)
Elo Rating Only
- Basharat: 65%
- Ewing: 35%
Ryan Gandra vs Zach Reese
Prediction: Ryan Gandra (53%)
Zach Reese (47%)
Elo Rating Only
- Gandra: 51%
- Reese: 49%
Cody Durden vs Alessandro Costa
Prediction: Alessandro Costa (73%)
Cody Durden (27%)
Elo Rating Only
- Costa: 57%
- Durden: 43%
Costa receives one of the strongest model projections on the entire event.
UFC 329 Predictions Summary
According to the prediction model, the biggest favorites on the card include:
- Luke Riley — 73%
- Alessandro Costa — 73%
- Farid Basharat — 72%
- Damian Pinas — 70%
- Max Holloway — 64%
- Mario Bautista — 64%
- Lone'er Kavanagh — 64%
- Gable Steveson — 64%
The closest fights projected by the model are:
- Terrance McKinney vs King Green
- Benoit Saint-Denis vs Paddy Pimblett
- Ryan Gandra vs Zach Reese
Final Thoughts
UFC 329 has all the ingredients for an unforgettable night of MMA. The main event between Conor McGregor and Max Holloway headlines a stacked lineup featuring established stars and rising contenders across multiple divisions.
While the prediction model gives Max Holloway a 64% chance of victory, McGregor's legendary knockout power means the outcome is far from certain. Several other bouts also project as extremely competitive, making UFC 329 one of the most compelling cards of the year.
Who do you think wins the UFC 329 main event? Share your predictions in the comments and let us know which fight you're most excited to watch on July 11.
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