Melbourne Cup 2025 form guide, tips, predictions, odds, betting, 24-horses field, who will win in Flemington?
It’s here again — not just Australia’s greatest race, but a national tradition: the Melbourne Cup.
At 3.00pm on the first Tuesday of November, the nation will pause for the famous 3200m test of stamina that has become a global highlight of the racing year.
First run in 1861, the Cup has crowned legends like Phar Lap, Carbine, Rising Fast and Makybe Diva, and now attracts the world’s best stayers in what’s often called the race that stops a nation.
This year, 10 international raiders from Britain, Ireland, Japan, Germany and, for the first time, the USA, join Australia’s finest in a true world championship of handicaps — a race that captures both the country’s spirit and its love of a punt.
🏇 Melbourne Cup 2025 Tips, Predictions, Odds, Betting & Final Field Preview
(Tuesday, November 4 – Flemington Racecourse, 3200m – Group 1 Handicap – Odds courtesy of Unibet)
The 2025 Lexus Melbourne Cup shapes as one of the most open in years — a world-class mix of Australian, European, Japanese, and American stayers, with weather and barriers again set to play a key role.
Track expected to be Good 4 / Soft 5, light breeze, and a full field of 24 ready to chase racing’s richest two miles.
🇮🇪 1. AL RIFFA (19) – 59kg – $8
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien | Jockey: Mark Zahra
Irish Group 1 performer who’s been aimed at this race all year. Won the Irish St Leger and arrives fit, strong, and seasoned for the trip. Wide barrier 19 makes the task harder, but O’Brien knows exactly how to win this race.
🧠 Prediction: Genuine top-two chance if track stays on the softer side.
🇦🇺 2. BUCKAROO (12) – 57kg – $8
Trainer: Chris Waller | Jockey: Craig Williams
Super consistent and has hit the line hard in both the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate. Perfect barrier and Waller polish make him one of the locals’ best hopes. Question mark at the 3200m, but he’s all class.
💰 Each-way value pick.
🇦🇺 3. ARAPAHO (15) – 56.5kg – $51
Veteran Sydney Cup winner who thrives in soft ground. Honest but likely a shade below these top internationals.
🔹 Could sneak into the first 10 if the rain comes.
🇮🇪 4. VAUBAN (2) – 56.5kg – $26
Last year’s Cup favourite returns under new Australian training. Brilliant barrier and serious talent, but needs to prove he still wants the fight at the finish.
⚖️ Better suited on dry ground; top-eight at best.
🇯🇵 5. CHEVALIER ROSE (5) – 55.5kg – $51
Japanese stayer with marathon stamina and a slick turn of foot when right. Damian Lane aboard helps. Unknown on Australian conditions but has the ability to surprise.
🌏 Intriguing international wildcard.
🇫🇷 6. PRESAGE NOCTURNE (9) – 55.5kg – $9
French raider with slick closing speed and a strong European staying record. Ran a beauty in the Caulfield Cup.
🌧️ If the rain hits, he’s a major threat — top 4 pick.
🇬🇧 7. MIDDLE EARTH (13) – 54.5kg – $34
Consistent and improving type, but the class gap may show.
🔹 Rough top-six chance if race turns tactical.
🇬🇧 8. MEYDAAN (22) – 54kg – $13
Frankel-bred and beautifully balanced galloper who’s drawn awkwardly but brings genuine Group 1 European form.
💪 J-Mac ride lifts him — solid top-five chance.
🇮🇪 9. ABSURDE (4) – 53.5kg – $26
Last year’s fifth place-getter back again with McEvoy. Perfect draw, proven at trip, and better weighted this time.
⭐ One for trifectas and first fours — ultra consistent.
🇩🇪 10. FLATTEN THE CURVE (17) – 53.5kg – $26
German stayer in top form across Europe. Honest, strong, and loves long distances.
🌍 Tough as they come; could feature late if tempo’s strong.
🇦🇺 11. LAND LEGEND (16) – $101
Out of form, but connections will be thrilled just to be in it.
⚠️ Hard to recommend.
🇦🇺 12. SMOKIN’ ROMANS (11) – $101
Reliable campaigner, but others stronger.
🧾 Top-12 hope at best.
🇮🇪 13. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (24) – $81
Wide draw hurts; former Ballydoyle horse with limited Australian form.
📉 Unlikely to threaten.
🇦🇺 14. HALF YOURS (8) – $6
Caulfield Cup winner and current favourite. Great draw, top form, and the locals are buzzing.
🔥 Major winning chance – my on-top selection.
🇬🇧 15. MORE FELONS (23) – $51
Wide gate, needs luck. Honest, but class may tell.
🎯 Place at best.
🇬🇧 16. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (6) – $15
In form, perfect draw, and low weight. Strong staying credentials.
🔸 Can feature late — strong top-six pick.
🇬🇧 17. FURTHER (7) – $34
Lightly raced 4yo with upside. Well weighted and building fitness.
💫 Smokey of the race if he settles early.
🇺🇸 18. PARCHMENT PARTY (3) – $51
Rare US runner bringing dirt stamina. Beautifully drawn, hard to line up.
🇺🇸 Could surprise if turf suits.
🇦🇺 19. ATHABASCAN (1) – $101
Inside draw helps, but lacks the turn of foot.
🎽 Honest but outclassed.
🇮🇪 20. GOODIE TWO SHOES (20) – $34
Lightly weighted mare, wide draw, but Joseph O’Brien knows how to prep one for Flemington.
🐎 Can run a bold race if tempo suits.
🇬🇧 21. RIVER OF STARS (14) – $17
Brilliant mare with strong Sydney Cup and Caulfield Cup form. Loves the trip and track.
💥 Huge chance for the quinella — don’t overlook.
🇦🇺 22. ROYAL SUPREMACY (21) – $34
Metropolitan winner who’s tough and consistent. Draw hurts, but form is solid.
⚡ Each-way chance for multiples.
🇳🇿 23. TORRANZINO (18) – $26
New Zealand stayer flying after Geelong Cup win. Strong late closer.
🍀 Could storm into the frame if they go fast early.
🇮🇪 24. VALIANT KING (10) – $7
Huge Bart Cummings win and brilliant lead-up form. Perfect draw, ideal prep, and proven turn of foot.
🏆 My second pick — should be right in the finish.
🔮 Melbourne Cup 2025 Predictions
🏆 Win: Half Yours (AUS)
🥈 Second: Valiant King (IRE)
🥉 Third: Al Riffa (IRE)
💰 Best Each-Way Value: Presage Nocturne (FRA)
🎯 Roughie to Include: Absurde (IRE) or River of Stars (GB)
🌧️ If it rains: Presage Nocturne & Arapaho come right into play
0 Comments