2025-26 College Football Playoff predictions, Picks, win probabilities for quarterfinal games

Which college football teams have the best chances of winning their quarterfinal College Football Playoff games?

The first round of the 12-team College Football Playoff in the 2025-26 season is in the books and the matchups for the quarterfinals on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1 are set. Alabama defeated Oklahoma 34-24 on Friday night, getting revenge from a loss to the Sooners in early November.

Take a look at the Sportshistori.com predictions, picks for the CFP quarterfinals, which pit No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech, No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia, No.10 Miami vs. No. 2 Ohio State, No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana.

How correct will the analytics be? Click on each game for College Football Playoff predictions, picks and College Football Playoff odds for that matchup.

College Football Playoff quarterfinal games predictions, Picks

Rose Bowl: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 9 Alabama predictions, picks

Odds: Indiana -7 | O/U 48.5
Prediction: Indiana advances

Indiana has earned its No. 1 seed behind a dominant, disciplined defense and an offense that rarely beats itself. The Hoosiers have shown they can control the tempo against elite competition, most notably in their Big Ten title game win over Ohio State. Alabama’s comeback win over Oklahoma in the first round showcased its resilience and coaching, but it also highlighted lingering issues — particularly a run game that lacks consistency.

Alabama’s offensive creativity under Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb should keep the Crimson Tide competitive into the second half, but Indiana’s defensive front is well-equipped to limit explosive plays and force Alabama into long-yardage situations. Over four quarters, Indiana’s balance and physicality should wear Alabama down.

Projected score: Indiana 27, Alabama 17

Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Miami predictions, picks

Odds: Ohio State -10 | O/U 42.5
Prediction: Ohio State advances decisively

Ohio State enters the quarterfinals with arguably the most complete roster in the field. Quarterback Julian Sayin has elite weapons in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, and the Buckeyes’ quick-strike passing game should neutralize Miami’s aggressive defensive front. Miami can generate pressure, but Ohio State’s scheme and skill talent give it answers.

Defensively, Ohio State has the edge by a wide margin. The Buckeyes’ front seven should disrupt Carson Beck and limit Miami’s ability to sustain drives. While the Hurricanes may land a few explosive plays early, Ohio State’s depth and efficiency should allow it to pull away after halftime.

Projected score: Ohio State 31, Miami 17

Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Ole Miss predictions, picks

Odds: Georgia -6.5 | O/U 56.5
Prediction: Georgia survives a shootout

Ole Miss is dangerous offensively and already proved it can score against Georgia, putting up 35 points in their October meeting. Under new head coach Pete Golding, the Rebels have remained aggressive and confident, but Georgia’s defense is significantly tougher than what Ole Miss faced in the first round.

Kirby Smart’s teams historically improve as the postseason progresses, and Georgia’s offense has found a rhythm late in the season. Ole Miss will score, but Georgia’s physicality in the trenches and ability to close out games should make the difference in a high-scoring contest.

Projected score: Georgia 35, Ole Miss 28

Orange Bowl: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Oregon predictions, picks

Odds: Oregon -1.5 | O/U 52.5
Prediction: Texas Tech in a close one

This matchup is the tightest on paper. Oregon’s speed and explosive offense present a real challenge, but Texas Tech’s defense has been one of the most consistent units in the country. If the Red Raiders can limit chunk plays and force Oregon to drive the length of the field, they’ll have a chance to control the game.

Offensively, Texas Tech must capitalize in the red zone. If Behren Morton protects the football and converts touchdowns instead of field goals, Tech’s physical style can wear Oregon down. Expect a back-and-forth game decided late.

Projected score: Texas Tech 30, Oregon 27